Here’s one thing to be thankful for this holiday season: The cost of turkey has dropped for the second year running. Whether you’re hosting a full feast or a smaller gathering, the “turkey tax” that once burdened holiday budgets is easing, making it more affordable to host a festive meal.

A decade of turkey prices

Analysis of the Producer Price Index (PPI) —  a measure of inflation —  reveals the cost to produce turkeys increased 21% between 2014 and 2023.¹ This year, the annual average of preliminary monthly data shows turkey production prices have decreased 19% year-over-year.

Average annual price of frozen turkeys

While the PPI is not a measure of consumer spending, producers can pass added expenses or savings onto buyers^* in the form of higher or lower prices.

Prices peaked in 2022 when turkey production fell 6% to 5.222 billion pounds, down from about 5.558 billion in 2021. Now, the “turkey tax” is no more —  consumers can expect to pay between $1.04 and $1.98 a pound for their bird of choice this Thanksgiving.²

Read more: Will Thanksgiving be more expensive this year?

States producing the most birds

The USDA projected that the U.S. will produce 5,110 million pounds of turkey in 2024, a decrease of 6.4% from 2023.³ Where are the birds coming from?

Per the most recent data from 2022, the states producing the most turkeys are:⁴

• Minnesota – 37.0 million birds
• North Carolina – 28.0 million birds
• Arkansas – 26.0 million birds
• Indiana – 20.0 million birds
• Missouri – 17.0 million birds
• Virginia – 15.3 million birds
• Iowa – 11.7 million birds
• Pennsylvania – 7.7 million birds

U.S. total turkey production: 210.0 million birds

Savings are flying in

With supply stabilized, consumers may be able to find lower prices in stores, offering a break from the higher prices of 2022 and 2023. According to the Consumer Price Index, the cost of turkey (and some other uncooked poultry) is down 2.24% versus last year.⁵ Ham, potatoes, rolls, and ready-made-pies have also decreased in price. As you prepare to indulge, rest assured that for this year’s feast, the only thing on the chopping block is the bird – not your budget.