In this video, Vanessa Welch, Empower vice president for financial insights, and Marta Norton, Empower chief investment strategist, analyze the latest jobs report for March and address market volatility in the wake of U.S. tariff announcements. Here is a transcript:

Marta Norton: In my view, the odds of a recession remain below 50%, but they're rising quickly.

Vanessa Welch: Good morning. What a week it's been for the markets as President Trump's tariffs drove significant volatility. Now we're getting our first major economic indicator since those announcements with today's jobs report. Marta Norton, Empower's chief investment strategist, joins us to help us navigate these complex economic waters. Marta, good morning to you. I'm curious, what's your first read on these numbers?

Norton: Well, considerations heading into this report was whether we would see some reflection of the uncertain climate we've had prior to the tariff announcement. In fact, this report was actually quite positive. So on the jobs front — added 228,000 jobs, which was above expectations.

Unemployment did tick up a touch at 4.2%, but it remains in that narrow range that it's been in since last May of between 4% and 4.2%. I think what we're seeing here is a rebound from a difficult winter. We had storms; we had L.A. fires. Also, whisper of the DOGE effect in this report — federal jobs fell by 4,000. That means the full force of these cuts are still to come.

Welch: More of that “wait and see.” And I imagine, Marta, that many people are wondering how these new tariffs might affect future job reports.

Norton: Well, our consideration as we considered the tariff threat — and also as reflecting upon it once Trump's announcement has been made — is the impact on corporate earnings. Of course, tariffs are raising costs for companies, and if we start to see retaliation that could hurt the revenue side of the equation as well. So in that type of pressure environment, we may see companies slow their hiring even more, have a slower investment schedule. We could also see companies potentially lay off if they really need to start to protect their profit margins. So taking all that into consideration, I think there's an argument to be made for a weaker job market as we move forward into the year.

Welch: So the real concern is on the corporate side of the equation. Earnings season kicks off next week, and Marta, we know you'll be watching those reports very, very closely. Now with China threatening retaliation for these new tariffs, how might that further impact our job market?

Norton: So that's where the pressure comes for corporations on the revenue side. Remember, a lot of the corporations in the United States have geographical exposure when it comes to their revenue lines. And also remember that China may be the first to fire back on the tariff front, but it may not be the last.

Welch: So let's talk about the bigger picture for a moment: JPMorgan recently adjusted its recession probability forecast. Do you agree with their assessment, Marta?

Norton: Well, listen. My assessment here is that the economy has been in a very strong place heading into this environment. We also believe here at Empower that tariffs will have an impact on corporate earnings if they remain in place for quite some time. So in my view, the odds of a recession remain below 50%, but they're rising quickly.

Welch: So Marta, given the jobs numbers and the tariff situation, do you think the Fed might cut interest rates when they meet again in May?

Norton: Yeah, it's really going to depend on what we see from an economic data standpoint. If we start to see quick deterioration, then I think we'll see quick action from the Federal Reserve. But remember they're also dealing with an inflation threat — which is something that can come about from tariffs — so they really are between that rock and a hard place here. There's also the Fed's desire to look at the entirety of fiscal policy. So right now, the focus is on tariffs — that the momentum in Washington is shifting quickly to orient toward tax policy — and of course we had the ongoing deregulation. So they're going to want to look at the entire effect of those policies on the economic data.

Welch: Marta, thank you for your insightful analysis as always. Be sure to stay with us for more insights to help you make sense of these economic shifts. We'll be back next Thursday to break down the Consumer Price Index data. Have a great weekend.